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不少国家曾采用过战略性贸易保护政策,如日本在战后经济发展过程中,也对许多产业有过保护。它将一个产业保护一段时期,然后就转移。保护的目的只是希望在保护期内,让产业自身产生出一种技术外溢和自行不断壮大的能力,在短期内提高劳动生产率和竞争力。保护的时间是短暂的,保护的行业是不断变动的。克鲁格曼借用了吉文斯(Givens,1982)的说法,将其称做“狭窄的、移动的保护带”(the Narrow Moving Band)。
无论是自由贸易的政策还是“战略性贸易保护”政策,选择的依据都是如何使本国的利益最大化。这种利益不仅要从静态上估计,也要从动态上考虑。对什么产业采取什么政策,都要有尽可能精确的利弊分析。国际贸易的新理论并不告诉我们应不应该保护的问题,而是为了我们贸易政策的选择提供了更多需要考虑的问题。简单地利用贸易壁垒来保护幼稚工业是一种被动和陈旧的方式,代价是不小的。而从战略发展的角度对某些产品(不一定是整个行业)实行保护也许会带来长期的优势和利益,但是这些产品不一定是幼稚产业,保护的手段也不一定是贸易壁垒,可以是代价较小的产业政策或消费政策,保护的时期应是短暂的,这种保护是一种积极的,有前途的保护。
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